PIB dos EUA deve mostrar uma economia forte
A estimativa para os números finais é que o PIB do quarto trimestre se mantenha na casa dos 3,2%, mostrando uma economia aquecida
USD: Focus Shifts To Retail Sales & PPI
2024-03-14 • Atualizado
Ahead of the release of US February Retail Sales data, the US Dollar (USD) is showing a modest recovery. Analysts at BBH assess the potential impact of the upcoming data on the USD. A soft reading in spending could prompt another downward correction in the USD, as it might indicate a weakening consumer sentiment. Market expectations suggest a rebound in Retail Sales by 0.8% month-over-month (MoM) in February, following a 0.8% decline in January. Additionally, the Control Group Retail Sales, which exclude certain categories and feed into GDP calculations, are expected to rise by 0.4% in February after a 0.4% decline in the previous month. A robust performance in US consumer spending could dampen expectations of Fed funds rate cuts and bolster the USD, while any signs of spending struggling under higher interest rates may lead to a downside correction in the currency.
USDCAD - H1 Timeframe
The 1-hour timeframe chart on USDCAD is currently showing signs of a likely reversal. However, the fact that the price action has failed to break the previous high, or the trendline resistance could indicate a continuation of the bearish pressure in the meantime.
Analyst’s Expectations:
Direction: Bearish
Target: 1.34501
Invalidation: 1.34957
NZDUSD - H1 Timeframe
There are visible signs of consolidation on the 1-hour timeframe chart of NZDUSD. The wedge pattern is supported even further by the presence of a second trendline support, which aligns perfectly with the 200-period moving average. As a result of these confluences, my sentiment on NZDUSD is bullish.
Analyst’s Expectations:
Direction: Bullish
Target: 0.61922
Invalidation: 0.61476
USDJPY - H1 Timeframe
USDJPY has had a long streak of bearish momentum for weeks now with the most recent high remaining unbroken as yet. Considering the presence of a trendline resistance, Fibonacci retracement level, and the bearish array of the moving averages, I stand convinced that the bearish price action may continue.
Analyst’s Expectations:
Direction: Bearish
Target: 147.403
Invalidation: 148.206
CONCLUSION
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Todas as atenções estarão nos preços básicos do PCE (núcleo) dos EUA, que excluem alimentos e energia para o mês de março, com a expectativa de que os números venham abaixo do mês anterior, que registraram um aumento de 0,4%
